Published in Atmosphere as part of a special issue on the health impacts of aerosol source contributions, the article “The Effect of Non-Compliance of Diesel Vehicle Emissions with Euro Limits on Mortality in the City of Milan” presents simulations related to scenarios of diesel vehicle reduction in Milan.
The increasing focus on the harmful effects of diesel engines has led to the development of a complex modeling system for the city of Milan (Italy). This system accounts for NOx emissions from traffic and other urban sources, as well as their dispersion and chemical transformations in the atmosphere, influenced by meteorological parameters.
Traffic emissions in the Milan urban area were estimated using the geometric and structural characteristics of the road network, traffic flow data from the Agency for Environment and Territory Mobility, and the official European COPERT 5 model for pollutant estimation.
Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations were estimated in two scenarios: the current scenario with real emissions and the DESC (Diesel Emission Standards Compliance) scenario. Using a recent meta-analysis limited to European studies, we assessed the relationship between NO2 concentrations and natural mortality. For the current scenario, the annual average NO2 concentration was 44.3 µg/m³, whereas in the hypothetical DESC scenario it would be 37.7 µg/m³. This “extra” exposure of 6.6 µg/m³ of NO2 results in an annual excess of 574 “natural” deaths.
In light of these results and considering the dangers posed by these pollutants to exposed individuals, this study once again underscores the importance of developing specific traffic policies for urban environments.